Tech Watch: DRAM, SSD shortages could last months to years, vendors say

{"title": "Vendors Anticipate Extended DRAM and SSD Supply Constraints, Potentially Spanning Years", "body": ["Suppliers in the memory sector indicate that the current scarcity of DRAM and flash-based SSDs remains unresolved, with projections from industry leaders suggesting disruptions could persist for several months or possibly longer in both segments."], ["Attendees at the recent CES 2026 event in Las Vegas used the occasion to negotiate with providers and secure available memory components. However, discussions revealed increasingly challenging outlooks for supply availability."], ["Reports from analysts in late November highlighted potential increases in DRAM costs during the initial months of 2026. By the start of December, Micron announced plans to phase out its Crucial line and cease direct-to-consumer DRAM sales. Similarly, Kingston cautioned about impending price escalations that would likely elevate overall PC costs."], ["Micron's leadership notes that clients, likely encompassing computer assemblers, are seeking long-term contracts to guarantee inventory. Mark Montierth, senior vice president overseeing mobile and client operations at Micron, shared during a CES interview with PCWorld that constraints could endure intensely for 6 to 12 months, extending severely up to 24 months. He emphasized DRAM as particularly affected, while SSD impacts might be milder due to greater market participation and complexity in assessment."], ["Chris Kooistra, vice president of marketing at SSD producer Other World Computing (OWC), informed PCWorld of expected SSD limitations lasting at least six months after 2025's price surges. He explained that OWC raised SSD prices for Black Friday sales compared to early November, driven by unforeseen and inevitable cost hikes."], ["An executive from a peripherals company that procures its own memory and storage described the landscape as follows: SSD shortages might extend over numerous months, while DRAM could face even longer uncertainties, potentially years."], ["Unlike volatile stock exchanges where regulators can suspend operations to stabilize conditions, the memory industry lacks such interventions despite its history of alternating high-price booms and sharp declines. SSDs and memory units remain heavily influenced by the underlying costs of flash and DRAM components, with minimal added complexity."], ["Data center operators have aggressively acquired all available memory and storage, compelling mass producers to adapt. Micron cited this surge—elevating data center demand from roughly 40% to 60% of the total—as rationale for ending the Crucial direct sales channel."], ["Micron continues providing memory modules to end users indirectly through partnerships with PC manufacturers. Montierth clarified that while the Crucial online store is closing, the company's commitment to consumer needs remains intact."], ["Chris Moore, Micron's vice president for client marketing, elaborated that the data center sector's rapid expansion, not a deliberate shift away from consumers, drives these changes. Internal projections aim to balance supply across categories, but sustaining market position in this booming area demands greater allocation of resources."], ["Current deficits in memory and storage stem from heightened demand against steady supply, leading to inevitable price rises per basic economic principles. Yet the market operates chaotically, leaving businesses with scant preparation time."], ["SSD controller and unbranded drive maker Phison is reportedly fully booked through 2026, according to Digitimes, with CEO Khein-seng Pua stating that major NAND producers face similar backlogs. Short-term opportunistic trading is also waning, leaving the future unpredictable."], ["Phison U.S. president Michael Wu, via a statement from representative Lynn Kelly to PCWorld, explained that standard yearly allocation pacts are revised quarterly with price adjustments. However, surging demand beyond capacity has disrupted these routines, shifting distributions to reflect current market pressures."], ["Tactics from the processor sector may not translate easily here. AMD and Nvidia explore reintroducing cost-effective legacy chips to ease customer burdens, including AMD's support for legacy DDR4 modules. Challenges arise as DDR4 production has largely ceased in favor of DDR5. For storage, older flash tech would yield lower capacities, reducing efficiency and worsening shortages. At CES, Micron unveiled the single-sided M.2 2230 Micron 3610 SSD, offering 1TB to 4TB options."], ["Building new production facilities demands years; Micron initiated construction on a Boise DRAM plant in October 2023, with initial production slated for mid-2027, later than the previously projected mid-2026. Additionally, at CES, the company revealed plans to start a $100 billion super-facility in New York on January 16, which could become America's biggest chip plant."], ["Moore observed that the industry shares collective challenges following 2023's severe slump. 'Nobody had the funds for new plants back then... We're facing the consequences today, even as buyers enjoyed low prices,' he noted."], ["Mark has contributed to PCWorld over the past ten years, drawing on three decades in tech journalism. His portfolio includes more than 3,500 pieces for the outlet on topics like PC processors, accessories, and Windows software. He has also penned articles for PC Magazine, Byte, eWEEK, Popular Science, and Electronic Buyers' News, earning a shared Jesse H. Neal Award for news coverage. Lately, he donated a large assortment of Thunderbolt docks and USB-C hubs due to space constraints in his workspace."]}