For Black Friday shoppers interested in technology this year, the key recommendation is to act promptly rather than delay. The rationale stems from sharp increases in prices for specific parts, with projections indicating further escalation. For instance, costs for DRAM have surged twofold within a short period exceeding just one month.
Major AI data center operators have aggressively acquired available supplies. As organizations like OpenAI invest massive sums with hardware suppliers, standard chip producers are favoring these large clients over individual buyers. This results in reduced availability for everyday consumers. Additionally, potential tariffs add to the challenges.
Intel has informed financial experts that it is reducing emphasis on budget-friendly PC processors and anticipates supply disruptions in 2026. Regarding DRAM, DDR4 is gradually being discontinued, while DDR5 costs are rising steeply. Solid-state drives face milder impacts but remain strained, much like graphics processing units. Interestingly, deals on laptops could prove more favorable than usual, as manufacturers aim to clear existing stocks.
To navigate this, PCWorld annually reviews Black Friday promotions, focusing on optimal offers for items such as laptops, Chromebooks, storage solutions, individual parts, displays, and beyond. This year, the goal was to identify areas of potential discounts and those requiring careful searching. While some firms shared insights openly, many chose silence or non-response, as they continue planning their promotions. Black Friday extends beyond a single day into a broader period.
PCWorld.com features compilations of offers across popular hardware categories. Prior to exploring specific bargain locations, two essential tactics for 2025 Black Friday shopping emerge: leveraging package deals and considering pre-owned options.
Package deals have evolved; previously, online sellers might include a complimentary voucher with a purchase. For 2025, anticipate more advanced combinations. Ryan Marinelli, a lead technical expert at PCPartPicker.com, noted early examples like a mainboard paired with 32GB RAM and a gaming platform voucher—pairing scarce, costly items with more common ones. Digital software and vouchers remain plentiful and could see increased use over the holiday period.
Pre-owned markets include platforms like eBay and Amazon's refurbished service. Amanda Stefan, head of the second-hand parts site Jawa.gg, shared with PCWorld.com that mentions of tariffs have driven their operations to triple annually. Typically, buyers save between 20 and 40 percent compared to new items, according to Stefan. Further details appear in a Jawa.gg overview.
Regrettably, some outlets raised prices during September and October, later reducing them in November and December to simulate discounts. Tablets and smartphones were primary targets, per a KnownHost analysis from 2023 and 2024. Laptops escaped much of this tactic.
Nevertheless, early price adjustments to fabricate Black Friday reductions rose from 16 of 60 items tracked in 2023 to 19 in 2024. Positively, the number of genuine price cuts grew from 5 to 22 over the same years.
Inquiries to Amazon, Newegg, and Best Buy yielded no responses.
Tariffs have dominated discussions for 2025. Although they disrupted laptop sales earlier in the year, President Trump appears to have eased trade tensions. Following a November 10 meeting with China's President Xi Jinping, who committed to curbing exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals—a justification for U.S. tariffs—progress was noted. Yet, ongoing Supreme Court debates could limit Trump's tariff authority.
This uncertainty leaves outcomes unclear. PC and parts producers have taken steps like rerouting shipments, relocating factories, and offering pre-imported units to dodge tariffs. Without retailer disclosures on affected products, shoppers should simply seek the lowest prices rather than investigating specifics.
Component scarcity is intensifying, often unnoticed by buyers. Ryan Marinelli from PCPartPicker advised urgency for PC considerations: 'If you're eyeing a build, proceed swiftly upon spotting good offers, and avoid holding out for Black Friday peaks.'
'With funds available and readiness in place, opt for the purchase over delaying for minor savings like $10, given the volatility in RAM and storage markets,' Marinelli emphasized.
Analysts offer preliminary predictions on laptop and Chromebook promotions.
Tom Mainelli, leader of IDC's Device and Consumer Research, emailed that impacts vary by vendor size: 'Larger players like Dell and Lenovo, who buy components in bulk for data centers, can secure better rates than smaller rivals. Apple similarly benefits from high-volume acquisitions across its Mac, iPad, and iPhone ranges.'
Several dynamics influence the situation: Holidays traditionally serve to offload legacy stock. IDC's Ryan Reith, vice president of Device Trackers, commented in October that companies face choices between updating lines with tariff-risky parts or retaining obsolete goods.
'The PC supply chain is cautiously managing uncertainties to avoid missed chances, though holding excess stock remains hazardous amid robust early-year sales,' Reith observed. He added that gradual price hikes across regions, based on strategies, could spark inventory-clearing promotions.
Mainelli cautioned that discounts might favor premium segments over entry-level slashes. 'Not all vendors will see uniform increases; rises or muted deals are more probable at budget and mid-tier levels than high-end, where margins buffer material cost surges,' he stated.
This partly reflects Intel's public intent to forgo some low-end processor volume for profitable server components, driving up entry prices through basic market forces.
'Intel favors server and laptop processors over desktop ones,' noted Jim McGregor, chief analyst at Tirias Research, via email. 'Holiday impacts will be minimal, prompting original equipment makers to promote more AMD and potentially Qualcomm systems.'
Pricing and seasonal sales may hold steady, but vendors fret over holiday demand. The National Retail Federation's 2025 poll showed planned gift spending at $628, a drop from $641 the prior year, with 22 percent seeking electronics. Conducted in October, it predated potential government shutdown effects on healthcare aid and air traffic staffing issues affecting travel.
Typically, impulse buying is discouraged, yet the DRAM sector borders on frenzy.
'For PC builders, securing RAM promptly is wise,' Marinelli urged. 'No easing appears imminent.'
PCPartPicker's data shows DDR5 costs doubling over two months, factoring in promotions, rebates, and shipping where applicable.
While issues manifest currently, origins trace back earlier. Jim Handy of Objective Analysis, via The Memory Guy blog, explained that Chinese firm ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), backed by government funding, entered DDR4 production about a year ago.
'Major DRAM firms disliked CXMT's aggressive pricing to attract clients,' Handy said. 'They countered by ceasing DDR4 output to promote DDR5. Consequently, they did so.'
Complications arose: 'CXMT expanded on DDR4 success, but by late last year, China directed a switch to DDR5, halting further DDR4. Prices for DDR4 then exceeded DDR5 levels.'
Further issues followed: 'AI demands shifted production to specialized high-bandwidth memory, straining DDR5 supply. Combined with DDR4's scarcity, overall DRAM availability has tightened significantly.'
This scenario alarms holiday buyers, though memory producers thrive.
As a pure market good, DRAM follows supply-demand rules. TrendForce indicates margins at a 30-year peak above 70 percent. Leading producer SK Hynix reports full bookings for server, PC, and mobile DRAM into 2026. Samsung avoids spot-market sales, and DDR5 costs are forecast to rise through mid-2026.
DDR4 increases have been steadier than DDR5's, yet averages align closely: PCPartPicker lists 64GB (2x32GB) DDR4-3600 at around $380, versus $400 for DDR5-5600.
'System builders express dread through 2026,' Marinelli shared. 'Contracts are being dropped as AI buyers outbid, with no clear resolution in timing or source.'
Micron (Crucial) and Kingston offered no reply to queries.
Solid-state drives, comprising NAND chips and controllers, have seen stable pricing to date.
'SSDs present a brighter picture,' Handy remarked. 'Expect modest upticks from last month, but nothing drastic.' 'Direct buyers to SSDs for superior value,' he suggested.
However, stability is temporary, raising doubts on Black Friday participation versus holding for hikes.
Increases loom: AI operators are snapping up NAND, with TrendForce predicting constraints through 2026. Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, and Micron cut second-half 2025 NAND output, and Samsung eyes 20-30 percent price boosts.
Market signs emerge: PCPartPicker shows 1TB M.2 NVMe SSDs flat through 2025 but edging up, with 2TB and 4TB models following.
'Rumors suggest upward pressure on storage, though far less severe than RAM,' Marinelli commented. 'Increases are likely, but moderated.'
IDC's Mainelli emphasized shortages' greater effect over tariffs: 'Memory and storage deficits will likely dominate entering Q1 2026,' he emailed.
Despite Nvidia GeForce 5000 series concerns over list prices and scarcity, graphics card costs normalized in August and held. With the anticipated 'Super' lineup possibly postponed post-holidays or scrapped, current stock offers the safest option.
'GPUs are in reasonable shape currently, despite everything,' Marinelli said, foreseeing consumer card promotions. His findings point to bundles, like pairing a card with a gaming voucher, as discount paths.
Overall, this bodes well; early 2025 GPU deals seemed elusive.
CPU pricing has been even-keeled, though Intel's struggles roil budget segments.
Enthusiasts shunned Intel's 15th-generation Core Arrow Lake processors, with Intel acknowledging in April a preference for prior Raptor Lake models. CFO David Zinsner alluded to this in Q3 earnings, noting constraints on 10nm and 7nm processes used for 11th-gen Tiger Lake, plus Alder Lake and Raptor Lake chips.
'Rising demand strains us; we're drawing on stocks and steering buyers to alternatives,' Zinsner said. 'We're conceding some small-core client share to meet wider needs, especially servers.'
In practice, this shaping may involve discounting newer chips for appeal—akin to holiday specials. Limited resources and financial pressures mean Intel cuts back on low-end small-core production for higher server profits, likely curbing cheap PC availability.
This manifests in climbing costs for older, affordable Intel CPUs. Conversely, AMD desktop chips, eroding Intel's dominance, maintain steady prices.
Retailers condition us to expect peak deals on Black Friday, yet the takeaway is to seize opportunities whenever they arise. KnownHost's survey uncovered another pitfall: Certain items bypass discounts entirely.
PCWorld tracks promotions ongoing, spotlighting top finds daily. In 2025, against tariff and shortage backdrops, the guidance remains: Secure strong offers immediately.
Mark has contributed to PCWorld for the past ten years, drawing on three decades in tech coverage. He has penned more than 3,500 pieces for the outlet on processors, accessories, Windows, and related subjects. His work spans PC Magazine, Byte, eWEEK, Popular Science, and Electronic Buyers' News, earning a Jesse H. Neal Award for news. Recently, he relinquished a trove of Thunderbolt docks and USB-C hubs due to space constraints in his workspace.